Nonparametric Inference for a Class of Stochastic Partial Differential Equations II

Consider the stochastic partial differential equationdu (t,x) = (t)u (t, x)dt + dW _Q(t,x), 0 t T where = ₂/x ₂, and is a class of positive valued functions. We obtain an estimator for the linear multiplier (t) and establish the consistency, rate of convergence and asymptotic normality of this estimator as 0.     

Boundary Bias Correction for Nonparametric Deconvolution

In this paper we consider the deconvolution problem in nonparametric density estimation. That is, one wishes to estimate the unknown density of a random variable X, say f _X , based on the observed variables Y's, where Y = X + with being the error. Previous results on this problem have considered the estimation of f _X at interior points. Here we study the deconvolution problem for boundary points. A kernel-type estimator is proposed, and its mean squared error properties, including the rates of convergence, are investigated for supersmooth and ordinary smooth error distributions. Results of a simulation study are also presented.     

Simulation optimization of buffer allocations in production lines with unreliable machines

We use a recent simulationbased optimization method, sample path optimization, to find optimal buffer allocations in tandem production lines where machines are subject to random breakdowns and repairs, and the product is fluidtype. We explore some of the functional properties of throughput of such systems and exploit these properties to prove the almost sure convergence of our optimization technique, under a regularity condition on the steady state. Utilizing a generalized semiMarkov process (GSMP) representation of the system, we derive recursive expressions to compute onesided directional derivatives of throughput, from a single simulation run. Finally, we give computational results for lines with up to 50 machines. We also compare results for smaller lines with the results from a more conventional method, stochastic approximation, whenever applicable. In these numerical studies, our method performed quite well on problems that are considered difficult by current computational standards.     

Long Memory with Seasonal Effects

This review is devoted to stationary discrete time second order processes whose covariance asymptotically behaves like an hyperbolically damped oscillating sequence. We present the two main ways of generating parametric models of this type. Then we gather some results concerning the influence of seasonality on the classical limit theorems. Finally, we present a simulation method which we use to try a semi parametric estimation procedure adapted from the non seasonal situation.     

红外中带滤光片的结构、带宽估算及调整

中波红外波段在航天、气象、遥感等领域有着重要的应用，为了提高信噪比，系统中经常使用高质量的红外中带滤光片。相对带宽是红外中带滤光片重要的指标，主要取决于光学薄膜的膜系结构和具体设计。首先给出双截止组合型、F-P型、多半波型等几种膜系结构，归纳了相对带宽估算公式。同时从实用性出发，对一些具体膜系结构进行了相对带宽估算和综合分析，结果表明多半波结构最为可行。针对多半波结构，提出了间隔层膜料和光学厚度的选择、采用等效膜、调整膜层折射率等相对带宽调整的方法。最后，利用上述相对带宽调整方法对红外中带滤光片进行了设计，给出了实际镀制结果，滤光片相对带宽指标满足设计要求。     

On stochastic parameter estimation using data assimilation

Data assimilation-based parameter estimation can be used to deterministically tune forecast models. This work demonstrates that it can also be used to provide parameter distributions for use by stochastic parameterization schemes. While parameter estimation is (theoretically) straightforward to perform, it is not clear how one should physically interpret the parameter values obtained. Structural model inadequacy implies that one should not search for a deterministic “best” set of parameter values, but rather allow the parameter values to change as a function of state; different parameter values will be needed to compensate for the state-dependent variations of realistic model inadequacy. Over time, a distribution of parameter values will be generated and this distribution can be sampled during forecasts. The current work addresses the ability of ensemble-based parameter estimation techniques utilizing a deterministic model to estimate the moments of stochastic parameters. It is shown that when the system of interest is stochastic the expected variability of a stochastic parameter is biased when a deterministic model is employed for parameter estimation. However, this bias is ameliorated through application of the Central Limit Theorem, and good estimates of both the first and second moments of the stochastic parameter can be obtained. It is also shown that the biased variability information can be utilized to construct a hybrid stochastic/deterministic integration scheme that is able to accurately approximate the evolution of the true stochastic system.     

Efficient inverse radiation analysis in a cylindrical geometry using a combined method of hybrid genetic algorithm and finite-difference Newton method

An inverse radiation problem was considered to estimate boundary conditions such as temperature distribution and emissivity in axisymmetric absorbing, emitting, and scattering medium, given the measured incident radiative heat fluxes. The finite-volume method was employed to solve a direct radiative transfer equation for a two-dimensional axisymmetric geometry. Various parameter estimators, such as conjugate-gradient method, hybrid genetic algorithm, and finite-difference Newton method, were employed to solve the inverse problems, while discussing their performances in terms of estimation accuracy and computational efficiency. Based on this, we proposed, as a best inverse analysis tool, a new combined method that adopted the hybrid genetic algorithm as an initial value selector and used the finite-difference Newton method as a parameter estimator.     

Fast TV Regularization for 2D Maximum Penalized Likelihood Estimation

Total Variation-based regularization, well established for image processing applications such as denoising, was recently introduced for Maximum Penalized Likelihood Estimation (MPLE) as an effective way to estimate nonsmooth probability densities. While the estimates show promise for a variety of applications, the nonlinearity of the regularization leads to computational challenges, especially in multidimensions. In this article we present a numerical methodology, based upon the Split Bregman L1 minimization technique, that overcomes these challenges, allowing for the fast and accurate computation of 2D TV-based MPLE. We test the methodology with several examples, including V-fold cross-validation with large 2D datasets, and highlight the application of TV-based MPLE to point process crime modeling. The proposed algorithm is implemented as the Matlab function TVMPLE. The Matlab (mex) code and datasets for examples and simulations are available as online supplements.     

A regression approach to ROC surface, with applications to Alzheimer’s disease

We consider the estimation of three-dimensional ROC surfaces for continuous tests given covariates.Three way ROC analysis is important in our motivating example where patients with Alzheimer’s disease are usually classified into three categories and should receive different category-specific medical treatment.There has been no discussion on how covariates affect the three way ROC analysis.We propose a regression framework induced from the relationship between test results and covariates.We consider several practical cases and the corresponding inference procedures.Simulations are conducted to validate our methodology.The application on the motivating example illustrates clearly the age and sex effects on the accuracy for Mini-Mental State Examination of Alzheimer’s disease.     

Profitability in the car industry: New measures for estimating targets and target directions

In this paper we study the profitability of car manufacturers in relation to industry-wide profitability targets such as industry averages. Specifically we are interested in whether firms adjust their profitability in the direction of these targets, whether it is possible to detect any such change, and, if so, what the precise nature is of these changes.